From: Shanghai Metal Market
This week, domestic rare earths remained generally stable and weak, and individual varieties decreased slightly. On Thursday, the northern rare earth announced the listed price of oxides, and the series of rare earth products dropped significantly. The response of the market was relatively flat, and it still maintained its original rhythm.
On the supply side, domestic rare earth ore prices remain high, and the price of oxides continues to fall. As a result, the prices of the two segregated plants faced cost pressures and were even at a loss. Therefore, they were unwilling to take the initiative to lower their selling prices, and they often responded by limiting sales. Some even take measures to reduce production stoppages. On the other hand, an increase in the output of this year's indicator means that the production volume of compliance increases; while it is difficult to effectively suppress the illegal production, the overall output is expected to increase, which is a negative factor for the price. In addition, import mines from Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, and other countries have increased month by month and have gradually become the focus of the market.
On the demand side: At present, it is the off-season for downstream purchases. Most companies mainly rely on on-demand purchases. Since the prices are still in a weaker pattern, even if the raw material stocks of downstream companies are not high, they will not be purchased in large quantities. Some non-compliant metal plants in the north have been ordered to shut down, and the demand for rare earth oxides is also a blow. In the short term, the demand for price support is limited.
In addition, although the prices of tax-included products are generally stable, the prices of tax-exempt products in the market after the announcement of the northern rare earth listing price have apparently dropped, indicating that the holders are not confident enough to take the initiative to lower prices to promote transactions.
On the whole, the recent rare-earth futures market lacks a clear bullish factor. The cost pressures of mainstream separators have slowed down the prices. It is rumored that the centralized purchasing of individual products has a supportive effect on prices, but the weak downstream demand will continue to constrain prices. It is expected that the mainstream price of antimony oxide may fall to 310,000-315,000 yuan/ton next week.