1.Briefing of Important News
This week, prices of PrNd, DyFe and Tb kept increasing. Price from Asian Metal at this weekend presented: PrNd metal 435-440RMB/KG (price from SMM: 430-450RMB/KG), DyFe alloy 1930-1950RMB/KG (price from SMM: 1950-2000RMB/KG), and Tb metal 4450-4500RMB/KG (price from SMM: 4500-4600RMB/KG).
The export volume of rare earth in China in this April was 4328.9 tons with export amount USD40.9 million. The accumulated export volume of rare earth from January to this month was 15626.3 tons with total export value USD150.4 million. The total export volume of rare earth fell 4.3% and the accumulated export value of rare earth fell 8.2% compared with the same period of last year. In April, The export volume of rare earth permanent magnet was 2903.7 tons with an increase of 5.46% while average export price was 4616USD/kg with a decrease of 13.31%. From January to April, accumulated export volume rose 1.75% and the export amount fell 8.91%.
2.Analysis of Professional Insiders
This week, the rare earth market was quickly adjusted and then stepped into stability compared to last week's high and back, and then re-started the rising mode, but the rise was relatively slow and the overall performance of the market was stable.
At the beginning of the week, the main products of rare earth continued to fall back. After going through craziness and setbacks, the market was obviously calm. Although prices were no longer being pushed up, there was no significant profit selling. Manufacturers entered the market with strong attitude of stabilizing price. With the gradual stabilization of transactions, the information of low-price transactions of traders and some small industries has cooled. With the progress of trade war and the enthusiasm of rare earth, the attitude of the industry has changed subtly on Tuesday, the rally has turned to stabilization.
As far as the domestic rare earth market was concerned, the main possible impacts of the trade war in the near future are as following:
On June 1st, China would probably impose 25% tariff on rare earth metals produced in the United States, with almost no advantage in cost competition. At that time, the domestic supply of light rare earth PrNd would shrink further.
The restrictions on rare earth exporting to the United States might become more and more serious. At present, we are on the stage of Anti-Demonstration and consider it as bargaining chips for further negotiation. However, the expected outcome of the negotiations is not optimistic, and the restrictions on exports to the United States might be done. Historically, restrictions on rare earth exports had been always leading to an increase in domestic rare earth prices, which was the reason why recent price kept increasing. Next week, probably the price of rare earth will keep rising, and distinguished from the stable price of this week, there may be new policies and multiple stimulus which will lead to an acceleration of the growth of all rare earth products! (Ruidow.com)
